Why trump Isn’t The Next Hitler

Comparisons of trump to Adolf Hitler seem to be everywhere on social media. In some ways these comparisons are apt: trump has a noted affinity for dictators and to the best of my knowledge and recollection the only book he has ever been accused of reading is Mein Kampf. I can see why people want to make that comparison, but in my mind the comparison is doubtful at best.

I recently started reading Daniel Jonah Goldhagen‘s book Hitler’s Willing Executioners: Ordinary Germans and the Holocaust. I was only a few pages into the introduction when something occurred to me. Goldhagen’s thesis is that Hitler was able to pull off the Holocaust because regular Germans participated willingly and actively.

I must admit that although I am still only a few pages into that book the thesis reminded me of some things. I read John Toland‘s Adolf Hitler: The Definitive Biography in high school and I can recall a few details. Hitler did not grow up rich, he was the son of a civil servant. Hitler was in the German army and served in combat in World War I. After coming to power Hitler quickly reduced unemployment and expanded his war machine, both of which worked to improve the lives of the German working class. Part of the reason that Hitler endeared himself to common Germans was the early success of his economic policies.

I can conceive that economic conditions could nudge a populace toward political support of their leaders. However, political support does not explain how a populace could participate in the widespread slaughter of their neighbors. European anti-semitism probably helps to explain how ordinary people were able to become unrepentant murderers; that seems to be Goldhagen’s argument.

The United States of America is not post-Weimar Germany. trump, despite any admiration he has for Hitler or any other despot, is nothing like an effective dictator. I cannot make any determination about the ineptitude of any other tyrannical regimes because what seems to get recorded and communicated are the successes they achieve. I think after history has taken the time to review and analyze this era what will stand out is trump’s utter ineptitude and idiocy.

I mentioned earlier that Hitler rebuilt the working and middle classes of Germany. trump seems to be doing his damnedest to destroy all but the billionaire class in the US. It is doubtful that this will lead to long-term political support strong enough to do Hitler-level damage to those he calls vermin. It seems he wants to evoke certain types of images to his followers but my guess is that he will economically alienate a large portion of those followers long before he starts calling for widespread bloodshed.

There will always be a contingent of followers who will do trump’s bidding, regardless of the economic and social damage they endure. trump has used economic uncertainty and social anxiety to speak to white supremacist fears. trump’s success lies in his evocation of racism.

That population seems to exist primarily in what we now call red states. I am not arguing that there are not racists in blue states; however, in blue states there are more social and economic disincentives to be overtly racist. The problem then becomes that the red states that trump depends on for his most ardent support are generally thinly populated in comparison to blue states. For example, the County of Los Angeles, where I live, is larger than 40 other states.

Another problem is that there are numerous red states that are effectively failed states; economic failures that endure only because of federal transfer payments. Nebraska has been showing up on my social media with warnings that the state is going bankrupt. trump economic policies seem to be exacerbating this situation. Nebraska will not be the only red state where this occurs.

I certainly hope that trump doesn’t become a successful dictator. From what I can tell, it isn’t likely. His economic policies will indeed hurt all but the wealthiest. Most importantly, he is hurting those whose support he needs the most. trump’s populist rhetoric is undercut by his oligarchical policy bent. In the end only the blindest among us, after suffering his incompetence, economic carnage, and empty populism, will sing the praises of führer trump.